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Without ‘Seasonal Adjustment,’ US Economy Actually Lost 2.5 Million Jobs, Not Gained 517,000

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Feb. 3 that the U.S. economy added 517,000 new jobs in January, surpassing the upwardly revised figure of 260,000 in December and exceeding economist predictions of 185,000. Without seasonal adjustment, however, the January 2023 number is 2.5 million lower than that of December 2022.

According to the BLS, seasonal adjustment is a method used to remove the effects of recurring seasonal patterns in data. Throughout the year, the labor force, employment levels, unemployment, and other labor market indicators are affected by seasonal factors such as weather changes, holidays, and school schedules. The BLS claims these seasonal patterns can be accounted for by seasonally adjusting the data each month, making it easier to identify underlying trends and non-seasonal movements.

The seasonal adjustment in the January 2023 U.S. BLS report added a total of more than 3 million jobs to the economy. In January 2022, a similar adjustment increased the report’s count by approximately 2.2 million jobs. Conversely, the seasonal adjustments for November and December 2022 subtracted about 2.14 million jobs from the report.

Economist Says ‘Better to Ignore the Report Altogether’

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has warned that the BLS report might be to good to be true.“Whoa! The BLS jobs report for January was VERY strong. So strong, I don’t believe it. The BLS is likely having measurement issues. Most likely, difficulty seasonally adjusting the data, which is especially important in January. This January was the fifth warmest on record,“ Zandi wrote in a tweet on Feb. 3.

The BLS reported little change in the unemployment rate of 3.4 percent and the number of unemployed persons of 5.7 million in January 2023. The unemployment rates for various worker groups such as adult men, women, teenagers, whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics remained mostly unchanged. The number of persons jobless for less than five weeks decreased to 1.9 million, while the number of long-term unemployed was unchanged at 1.1 million.

The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio were unchanged at 62.4 percent and 60.2 percent, respectively, and remained below their pre-pandemic levels from February 2020. The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million, and the number of persons not in the labor force who want a job, at 5.3 million, were both little changed. The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force and the number of discouraged workers remained unchanged at 1.4 million and 342,000, respectively.

Zandi says that the report showed positive results with growth in payroll and household employment, increase in hours worked, and rise in temporary jobs. However, he advises not to take this data at face value and expects future revisions based on complete employment counts from unemployment insurance records to show that the economy actually created fewer jobs in the past year.

“Fortunately, wage growth continued to moderate. It is still too strong to be consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, but it is getting close. Although having said this, perhaps best not to put too much weigh on this number either. Probably better to ignore the report altogether,“ Zandi wrote in a tweet.

READ 19 COMMENTS
  • BRAIN DEAD BIDETS says:

    Bidet isn’t worth a good excretion on. And he certainly isn’t worth wiping it off on. I wouldn’t trust him, with a dog. He’s a perverted old pedofile. Just like his son, who refuses to claim he wasted his sperm on his own child. That child will get older, And when it does, Itll probably take HUNTER AND HIS DADDY FOR EVERYTHING THEY HAVE. JOE WILL PROBABLY BE PICKELED BY THEN. AND HUNTER STAYS THAT WAY ANYHOW.

  • MARY H PRICE says:

    HE LIED AGAIN TO THE AMERICA PEOPLE BUT NOT SURPRIZED AT ALL. THAT IS ALL HE KNOWS HOW TO DO. HE IS BRAIN DEAD READ FOR MENTAL HOSPITAL

  • Patriot says:

    Obiden never gets it right if more people were working than he says we’d be in a better financial place but with 2.4 million unemployed as usual obiden always leaves out the truth along with the tanked economy still sky high oh but wait it’s more important to take our hard earned tax dollars and give it the cry baby Zelenskyy who accused America of not helping with his war dud we are not your personal banker we here in America are sympathetic to your cause but we don’t have much more to give either it’s not personal we have a commie leftist in the WH he cares more about giving illegals voting rights than he does about Americans and legal nationals who followed the rules to be Americans then we have word salad veep who does really nothing but lie about her boss helping us with lower electricity and gas bills oh but only if that were true see this person the leftist veep lies as much as old what’s his name does and fyi kamale our electric bills before you two low life’s took office we’re less than half before you two losers he’s not saving any America on utilities, just another leftist bunch of lies losers! Let’s Go commie joe and do nothing veep you broke the record gir the veep who is the most useless!

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