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Poll: Trump Holds 30-Point Lead over 2024 GOP Primary Field

Former President Donald J. Trump holds a towering 30-point lead over the rest of the potential 2024 Republican primary field, according to a poll.

In an Emerson College Polling survey released Tuesday, 55.1 percent of registered voters said they would vote for Trump in the 2024 GOP primary, placing him 30.3 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). The Florida governor garnered 24.8 percent of the response.

Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third place as 7.5 percent of participants said they would back him, and 3.6 percent would support outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), the vice chair of the January 6th Select Committee. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) drew support from 3.4 percent of poll participants. While the entire poll surveyed 1,380 registered voters, the question asking poll participants who they would support in the GOP primary had a sample size of 614 respondents.

According to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball, patterns of support between Trump and DeSantis vary among different education and age demographics:

There is a stark education divide among Republican primary voters. A 71% majority of voters with a high school degree or less support Trump in 2024 whereas 14% support DeSantis. A 53% majority of those with a college degree, some college, or associate’s degree support Trump while 28% support DeSantis. By contrast, Republican voters with a postgraduate degree are most split: 32% support Trump, 29% support DeSantis, and 18% support Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.

There is also an age divide in the Republican primary: younger voters under 50 break for Trump over DeSantis 67% to 14%, voters between 50 and 64 break for Trump 54% to 32%, while Republicans over 65 are more split: 39% support Trump and 32% DeSantis.

The poll also gauged support among potential 2024 Democrat candidates, finding that President Joe Biden is still the frontrunner despite garnering an approval rating of just 38.7 percent in the survey. Of the 591 respondents polled regarding their candidate preference in the potential 2024 Democrat primary field, 41.5 percent said they would vote for Biden, while Vice President Kamala Harris drew the second highest rate of support at 16.6 percent.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) landed in third place with 11.5 percent of the response, and another 8.9 percent said they would support Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

When asked who they would vote for in a possible general election rematch between Trump and Biden, 40.9 percent said they would back Trump, while 45.1 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Another 8.5 percent were undecided, and 5.6 percent said they would cast a ballot for a different candidate. Similarly, Biden led DeSantis by a margin of 42.5 percent to 38.8 percent, with 11.2 percent stating they would vote for someone else. Another 8.5 percent were undecided.

Emerson College Polling sampled 1,380 registered voters from November 18-19, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

10 Comments
  • Richard Hoyle says:

    Every poll I have seen….and I am not a great believer in the accuracy of polls or the integrity of most pollsters…shows Mr. Trump leading any other named presidential wannabe by substantial margins…almost always well into the double digits.

    Although it is an abused and over used comment, I believe that the 2024 election may be pivotal for the survival of the United States as a free, independent Constitutional Republic. The years of horrible leadership under the two socialist incompetents, Obama and Biden; and years of overwhelmingly disastrous conduct on the part of Democrat led House of Representatives and Senate have brought our nation to the brink of disaster on many fronts. Aided and abetted by a horde of gutless conservative politicians and frequent infiltration and back stabbing by a few dedicated but effective RINO traitors, we have hung on by our fingernails as we have watched our nation circle the drain of complete failure and collapse.

    For the Republicans to enter into the 2024 election cycle with a huge field of challengers followed by the carnage of the primaries and the shredding of any cohesion and solidarity within the party would be tantamount to handing the radical Democrats the election on a silver platter and would, more than likely, push our nation so far over the edge that we cannot recover.

    I expect the usual RINO traitors like Romney to step forward to see how much damage they can do to the party as they have done in the past. DeSantis is obviously excellent presidential material…but not until at least 2028. For once in our lives, we need to ignore many of the more trivial and non-essential differences we have and pull behind a single candidate with a real chance of winning….Mr. Trump. Even with our reservations…and, yes, even I have some, Trump has shown the ability to do the job and do it well. He will have the benefit of being a one more term candidate….unencumbered with having to worry about re-election. He owes virtually no political favors. And, maybe most of all, the radical Democrats and RINOS are absolutely terrified of him.

  • Boaz says:

    Shows Club For Growth poll was a scam, farce or just a fraud!!!

  • Rita says:

    Since DeSantis already stated he would not run if Trump ran I have to assume this article is for division of the GOP and NOTHING else. Shame on you…

  • Loooch says:

    The only reason some on the right are doubting Trump is that the left has had full control of ALL information channels for the last 2 years. It has been Trump is evil 24/7… since covid (the true Big Lie). And it’s been effective. Trump was the grand awakening for the US… and he will wake us up again. Stop watching CNN, network news and, yes… even Fox news. Believe what you see and know… and not what you hear from the lying talking heads. And get ready for Trump 2024 – Bigger and better.

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