There’s been plenty of polls released in the final weekend before the election. While that includes the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, which has been criticized for the completely unbelievable results out of Iowa showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead, Atlas Intel also put out a new poll that brings about only good news for former and potentially future President Donald Trump. This turned out to be the most accurate poll for the 2020 cycle.
Last week, Atlas Intel put out a poll showing Trump leading in six out of seven key swing states, with Harris have an edge of +0.2 in Wisconsin. Not only does Trump lead in all seven now, including Wisconsin, his lead has increased in all of them but North Carolina, where he saw a drop in support of 0.3.
This time, Trump leads in all seven swing states, and his lead is outside the margin of error in three of them.
His best performing state is Arizona, where he leads by +6.5 over Harris. Nevada is Trump’s next best state, where he leads by +5.5. This is especially critical, given that the Nevada Supreme Court ruled last Monday that mail-in ballots could come in three days after Election Day and without a postmark. In North Carolina, he’s up by +3.4 over Harris.
Georgia continues to be a bit of a mystery, since it tends to be one of Trump’s best swing state, but he’s up by +2.5, still within the MOE. He also leads Harris in Pennsylvania by +1.8, by +1.5 in Michigan, and by +1.0 in Wisconsin. Those last states are potentially the more trickier ones for a Trump victory, but still feasible. The poll was conducted November 1-2.
With Wisconsin in the Republican column, Trump’s Electoral College win looks to be even more expansive, with 312 votes to Harris’ 226 votes.
Data collection: November 1-2. Sample sizes: AZ: 967; GA: 1174; MI: 1198; NV: 782; NC: 1310; PA: 2049; WI: 728. The margin of error is ±2pp for PA, ±4pp for NV and WI, and ±3pp for the other key states.
Access the full survey at https://t.co/RSH9RwH80T
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
JUST IN: AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster of 2020, releases their official swing state poll showing Donald Trump leading in every swing state.
The poll shows Trump leading in Arizona and Nevada by a very comfortable margin.
North Carolina: Trump +3.4
Georgia: Trump +2.5… pic.twitter.com/W8EJvnIsKP— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 3, 2024
In the previous poll, Trump led Harris in Arizona by +4.2, in North Carolina by +3.7, in Nevada by +3.6, in Georgia by +2.3, in Pennsylvania by +1.5, and in Michigan by +0.6. Harris led in Wisconsin by +0.2.
Just like last week, Atlas Intel also did a poll at the national level, where Trump leads by 49-47.2 percent against Harris in a full field and by 49.8 percent to Harris’ 48.3 percent in a head to head matchup.
HEAD TO HEAD SCENARIO
In the scenario with only Trump and Harris, stability is maintained, with a slight fluctuation favoring the Democrat in voter preference – Trump’s margin goes to 1.5%.
🔴 Trump: 49.8%
🔵 Harris: 48.3% pic.twitter.com/cVof9wOUTJ— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
Trump led Harris in both the full field last week, by 49.1-47.2 percent, and by 49.6-48.2 percent in a head to head matchup, with those numbers pretty much staying the same.
Trump shared the results of the Atlas Intel poll results from his X account on Saturday.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 3, 2024
With such results included, RealClearPolling has Trump leading Harris at the national level by +0.2, while he’s leading by +1 in the battleground states. Harris only leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, by +0.3 and +0.6, respectively.
The poll results are also included by 538, which brings Harris’ national lead down to +1 over Trump. Of the seven swing states, Harris also only leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by their metrics.
Nate Silver also included Atlas Intel in his model, which has Harris up by +0.9 at the national level, with the polls trending in Trump’s direction since last week and since last month. Silver had a note about that on Sunday morning, pointing out that “our national polling average tightened even further to Harris +0.9, though the model doesn’t care much about national polls at this stage.” He also stressed his take that the race is “a pure toss-up.”
We’re just a couple of days away to see if this momentum sticks with Trump to become president once more, all while the Harris-Walz campaign continues to be flailing and turning to desperate tactics that look to backfire, as could very well be the case with Harris’ appearance on “Saturday Night Live.”
Morning model update.
NYT swing state polls good for Harris but not great.
Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great.
It’s a pure toss-up. All the numbers at the link.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/N5Sc4RiBYN
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2024
If Kamala wins it WAS INDEED RIGGED ONCE AGAIN! TRUMP/VANCE 2024
Surprised at Notth Carolina, since the hurricane debacle.
Maybe they’re waiting for a last minute blitz.
If not, it confirms their stupidity.
GET READY ALRIGHT~ ‘A Coordinated Effort’ to Rig States — Rogan Exposes Dems’ Plan to Destroy American Democracy
“Undeniably,” admits Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman to podcaster Joe Rogan, “immigration is changing our nation.”
The two men spoke about a wide variety of political topics ranging from how Donald Trump won in 2016 to how immigration stands as a key issue in the election today.
Specifically, Fetterman played the Democratic Party card, claiming that Republicans in 2024 “had an opportunity to do a comprehensive border-bipartisan-and that went down because Trump, he declared that that’s a bad deal after it was negotiated with the other side.”
Rogan then brutally ‘fact-checked’ the stammering senator, pointing out the reality that that the deal made many concessions that Republicans concerned about the border found to be unacceptable.
“But, didn’t that deal also involved amnesty,” responded Rogan,”and didn’t that deal also involve a significant number of illegal aliens being allowed into the country every year?”
Silence from Fetterman.
Rogan continued:
“I think it was 2 million people. So still the same sort of situation. And their fear is exactly what I talked about, that these people will be moved to swing states and that that will be used to essentially rig those states and turn them blue forever.”
Finally, the PA Senator responded
“I’ve never witnessed those kinds [illegals voting] of a thing… I don’t think there’s that level kinds of organization.”
But Rogan once again would not allow the politician to ‘lie’ pointing out that “there is an organization that’s moving these people [illegals] to swing states.”
“There’s a significant number of these people that are illegal immigrants that have made their way to swing states.
And then there’s been calls for amnesty. There’s been calls for allowing these people to have a pathway to citizenship and allow them to vote.
The fear that a lot of people have is that this is a coordinated effort to take these people that you’re allowing to come into the country, then you’re providing them with all sorts of services like food stamps and housing and setting them up and then providing a pathway to amnesty.
And then you would have voters that would be significantly voting towards the Democrats because they’re the people that enabled them to come into the country in the first place, first place and provided them with those services.
This is a big fear that people have and that you’re rigging this system and that this will turn all these states into essentially locked blue like California is.”
Fetterman’s responds:
“undeniably,” adding that “immigration is changing our nation.”
“I haven’t spent a lot of time in Texas but it’s very clear that immigration has remade Texas and I think it’s generally, it’s a good thing.”
Watch the discussion on immigration below: X VIDEO