Democrat Party pollsters are warning that they could be in trouble, as their polling has been less reliable than usual in recent elections since former President Donald Trump’s appeal is difficult to measure via surveys.
President Joe Biden beat Trump “by a closer margin than a lot of the polling suggested” in 2020, creating an “oh, shit” moment for Democrat pollsters, according to a Politico report.
Moreover, polls suggested that Democrats would expand their House majority, but, instead, they saw it shrink, the report added.
These revelations reportedly caused five of the Democrat Party’s top polling firms, which are usually in competition with each other, to collaborate in an attempt to fix their less-reliable-than-usual polls.
While Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have caught up to Trump in the polls, Democrat pollsters are still wondering, “How real is her surge?” and warn that, even if their polling is accurate, Trump still has a lot of advantages, Politico reported.
“It’s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, a partner at the Democrat polling firm GBAO Strategies, told the outlet.
One recent poll from Navigator Research, for example, found Trump and Harris “essentially tied” across swing states, with specific candidate characteristics that voters generally prefer — such as if the candidate is up for the job or is a strong leader — favoring Trump.
Another stark warning sign for Democrats is the likelihood of a polling error concerning the reality that Trump’s appeal is very difficult to ascertain via polling, as surveys underestimated the forty-fifth president in both 2016 and 2020, Politico reported.
“I spent a ton of time and analysis trying to dig into those problems. And I feel much better educated about those problems,” Nick Gourevitch, a partner at Global Strategy Group, said. “I don’t think there’s any pollster in America who can sit here and say that they’re 100 percent sure that they fixed any issues in polling. I think that would be silly.”
Notably, Democrat pollsters conducted a monthslong experiment in Wisconsin — not to predict an election result but to reach out to voters in several different ways than usual to see if they differ from the voters captured in conventional polling methods.
As a result, the pollsters discovered that conventional polls capture voters who are more politically engaged. This typically does not matter for surveys conducted in low-turnout elections but can cause issues for the reliability of polls conducted for presidential races, as more lower-propensity voters turn out for those elections.
As a result of these potential problems, “most elected and professional Democrats” have been “trying to temper their enthusiasm” at the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Politico reported.
While Democrat pollsters have been trying to address their survey reliability issues since 2020, they warn that their polls could still be underestimating Trump in the 2024 election year — but they have not been able to put their finger on exactly what the reasons for it could be.
“Every year, we’ve had different curveballs,” John Anzalone, the lead pollster on Biden’s 2020 campaign, said. “This is a difficult industry. Something’s gonna happen in 2024. You and I, right now, don’t know what that is.”
The surveys are not realistic because the people gathering the information are not involved, they get paid by votes So they could go to a place where they like a certain individual So it would give a false sense of security If the people only gave her a 28 the lowest score ever recorded So how does equate to being a great president They say she has a long and storied career That is a total lie The positions she got in California is because what she was doing for a powerful democrat So she was in before anything had ever been voted on Boxer retires and they put her in as a senator and she was worthless at that When she left the DA position they found over 100 cases she was handling personally She has been and I will be nice and say she is very marginal She has no idea what the constitution states She says she is going take our guns I would say come get them That will never stand There are to many democrats that hunt or have friends that hunt or belong to a gun club As fucking lazy as she is I don’t think she will have time with continued walk outs on her staff She is already a DEI poster child So How do you work with someone who knows next to nothing and get the point across She defined AI as a little toys like thing that is really smart Ok preschool is out for the day
Biden did not defeat Trump!
The democrats have been in trouble since they allowed Harris to push her way in without a vote by the people. I hope they lose royally in both the House and Senate. The country needs better than what is being offered by the democrats.
The only way the democrats will defeat Trump is to commit voter fraud. They know it now and they knew it before and they knew it in 2020 I don’t believe there has been enough done to stop it.
Kamalama on polls…..’I like polls, polls are good. Polls are tall thin things that you can put things on top of. Polls are also a snapshot in time. Time is relative, so that makes polls relative. Polls are also people from Polland. Polland is a country. It is next to Russia. I don’t like Russia, I always use 1000 Islands because I don’t eat horses. Can’t wait to be your white house czar!’