More Republicans than Democrats participated in primary elections for the 2022 midterms, suggesting an enthusiasm gap that will favor the GOP in November.
Fifty-two percent of votes cast in primaries were in Republican races compared to 48% in Democratic races, pollster John Couvillon found according to a Washington Post analysis.
In every midterm election since 2006, the party that received more primary participation gained seats. Republicans are expected to take back the House of Representatives in November, although Democrats have the inside edge on the upper chamber.
The analysis found that Republicans continued to turn out at higher rates even after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which many analysts have credited with super-charging Democrat enthusiasm. Democrats have won three out of four House special elections held since the Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Every quantitative indicator looks meh to bad for Republicans — except for primary turnout.
Basically if you add up turnout in all the primaries AND control for the effect of Dobbs, Trump's civil war -> there's evidence of a GOP advantage
New piece: https://t.co/TYix3wwWGS pic.twitter.com/fErl8SBY6D
— David Byler (@databyler) September 19, 2022
Although officials like House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy initially predicted that the GOP would win a wave election on par with the 2010 midterms, analysts believe that Republicans are likely to net between 15 and 30 seats. Republicans enjoyed a 12-point turnout advantage in the 2010 midterm primaries, according to The Washington Post’s analysis. That year, they netted 63 House and six Senate seats.
The analysis also noted a stark turnout advantage for Republicans in races where former President Donald Trump issued endorsements. In states like Ohio, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, Trump endorsed Senate candidates who subsequently emerged from contested primaries, while Democratic candidates more easily won their nominations. In states with a Trump endorsement, Republicans held a 14-point advantage, according to The Washington Post. Democrats held a two-point advantage in all other states.
Several other metrics, most notably President Joe Biden’s approval rating and generic ballot polls, favor the Republicans. However, Democrats have consistently out-raised their Republican opponents, both in- and out-of-state.
All the money in the world won’t change people’s minds. If they are stupid enough to vote more democrat sleezebags in, they deserve the high taxes and starvation that they see coming.
It really doesn’t matter how people vote… What matters is who counts the votes. If you live in any State where Democrats control the counting of votes, you will see a Democrat win regardless of the “ACTUAL” count! THE FIX IS IN FOLKS!
Why should the New World Order demonic Democrat communist government worry about any type of Gap they’ll close it off by allowing the cemeteries to empty out and go and vote on Election Day, besides their black entitlement bribed thugs going to the polls on buses like they did the last election from Chicago to Milwaukee and vote in two different states with different IDs they had arranged for them to have, not that they even needed the ID to start with, that’s how corrupt these elections have become, they’ll never be peace till the fraudulent election of 2020 is rectified and Justified how is this communist corrupted democrat government can ever apologize to over 78 million voters who had their votes stolen or switched to a senile mentally ill pedophile who never left his basement, and couldn’t draw more than 100 or 200 people at his rallies, all them rats better keep in hiding this election,there shouldn’t even be an election right now, there should be Mass trials and incarcerations at Guantanamo Bay for domestic terrorism and rigging an American election with communist propaganda and fake news media crimes.
Inflation and the Boder Crisis are the real issues at the American Table.
“FJB ” !!!!
Wonder if those polls figured in the rigged elections and massive voter fraud Democrats will use to steal many of these elections?